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New research project explores the link between labour market change and crime

Porträtt av sofia med Hankens korridor i bakgrund
A new research project will examine how major changes in the labour market affect crime. Sofia Bougt-Hernnäs, assistant professor of economics at Hanken School of Economics, is part of the project group which has received SEK 1,5 million funding from Handelsbanken’s Research Foundations.

Globalisation, technological change and shifting demand have led to the decline of traditional occupations in many sectors and regions. When such structural changes coincide with economic decline, the consequences for individuals and communities can be severe.

“While we know that labour market disruptions can lead to long-term unemployment and income losses, we know much less about how these changes influence criminal behaviour,” says Bougt-Hernnäs.

The project will utilise unique administrative data covering the entire Swedish population from 1973 to 2023. These data make it possible to follow individuals over time and link their labour market outcomes to information on criminal convictions.

“The richness of the data allows us to study how large economic transformations affect different groups in society in ways that have not been possible before,” Bougt-Hernnäs explains.

The research will focus on two major periods of economic disruption: the industrial restructuring of the early 1980s and the severe Swedish financial crisis of the early 1990s. 

“We will compare workers in sectors that were fading with those in more stable fields, and examine how different regions were hit by the 1990s crisis, to better understand how these changes may lead to crime”, Bougt-Hernnäs states.

In addition to examining direct effects on individuals, the group will also explore whether the consequences extend across generations.

“We are interested not only in the immediate effects on those directly affected, but also in whether this also impacts their children. This is key to understanding the broader social costs of labour market transformations,” says Bougt-Hernnäs.

Hans Grönqvist, professor of economics at Linneaus University and Research Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN), and Susan Niknami, researcher at the Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI) are also part of the research group.

More information:
Sofia Bougt-Hernnäs
Assistant professor of economics
sofia.hernnas@hanken.fi